Identifying technologies early on to help shape the future

The Technology Outlook is a national foresight study that analyzes the potential of promising technologies specifically for Switzerland. It is the result of the foresight activities carried out by SATW on behalf of the Swiss federal government and has been published every two years since 2015. The study is aimed at representatives from business, science, and politics, as well as individuals with an interest in technology. In this interview, project manager Claudia Schärer talks about the complexity of the development process and how companies can benefit from the findings.

Note: The launch of the Technology Outlook 2025 and the celebration of the 10th anniversary will take place on 9 September at Givaudan International in Kemptthal. You can register here - places are limited.

Translated with DeepL

Ms Schärer, what was the biggest challenge in compiling the current Technology Outlook?

The sheer volume of information: over 100 experts, hundreds of hours of interviews, 31 technologies. The biggest challenge was keeping an overview - in other words, not losing sight of the big picture and still doing justice to every topic.

How do you select the technologies that are presented in the Technology Outlook?

We work with a structured, multi-stage process. This is based on input from our foresight committees and our own research. From a longlist, the technologies are evaluated and prioritised by independent experts according to relevance and maturity. In this way, we ensure objectivity and professional breadth.

What role do the experts play in evaluating the technologies?

They are central. We conduct interviews with them, condense their information and add content, which is then reviewed again by the experts. Their opinions are also incorporated into the trend analyses. At the same time, we rely on measurable data such as publication figures or market volume. This creates a balanced picture.

How can companies and research institutions benefit from the Technology Outlook?

The report helps to recognise technological developments at an early stage - before they are widely used. This creates room for manoeuvre. This is particularly important for SMEs in order to keep pace with change. The Technology Outlook shows trends, application examples, relevant players and provides information on sustainability - making it practical and inspiring.

What developments do you see for the future of the Technology Outlook?

In the long term, we want to turn the Technology Outlook into a knowledge platform - with constantly updated content, use cases, players, detailed trend analyses and funding opportunities. We also want to respond even more specifically to the needs of industry, politics and education. Foresight should help to utilise resources such as time, money and knowledge more effectively.

The entire process of creating the Technology Outlook takes almost two years. Why is it taking so long?

Because we are redoing the entire report: Selecting technologies, researching content, conducting interviews, writing, checking and translating texts. Only when all the pieces of the puzzle are in place can we recognise overarching patterns and derive trends. Quality takes time - especially with complex topics.

How do you ensure transparency and objectivity in the evaluation?

We work with several independent experts for each technology and use standardised evaluation processes. Our team has many years of experience. Of course, there is no such thing as absolute objectivity - but we get as close to it as possible through structured interviews, critical enquiry and quantitative data.