Peter Jan de Haan (ETH Zürich)
Peter Jan de Haan (ETH Zürich)
Shifting from local pollution to global energy issues:
The possible role of incentive schemes promoting fuel-efficient vehicles
Abstract
Emission levels of local pollutants from road transport peaked in the 1980ies. Introduction of catalytic converters and a cascade of emission standards then helped to halve emission loads by date. They will decrease some more, with new standards to come and old cars phasing out of the market. The new challenge is of global scale: Saving energy and lowering CO2 emissions. This especially affects cars, as they emit 30% of all CO2 emissions in Switzerland, and 20% worldwide. This share will, by all forecasts, drastically increase as countries like China and India increase their car ownership level from once 2 cars per 1000 households to the OECD level of 500. Even in Switzerland, CO2 emissions from cars still increase, as annual efficiency gains of 1.2% are overcompensated by 2.7% more traffic. The Swiss government's goal for CO2 from cars was a decrease from 1990 to 2010 of -8%; today, we observe +9.3%.
In the public perception, however, a delay of at least a decade can be observed. Most consumers are not aware of the new challenges of bringing down CO2 emissions from cars, and still base their car purchase decisions on past experiences. Today, saving fuel does not necessarily mean driving a smaller car. Simply switching to more-efficient (i.e., smaller) engines, while staying with the preferred car brand and model, already can save up to 40% of CO2 emissions.
Policy tools promoting relative (size-dependent) energy-efficiency are therefore intensely debated. We present results from a survey among 2400 Swiss households on their car purchase behavior and acceptance of different policies. We then present results from our car purchase and car market microsimulation model, which is currently being employed for federal and cantonal agencies. The model uses an agent population based on census data, and distinguishes 2000+ make-model-engine configurations. We forecast the effects of incentive schemes that aim at increasing the share of energy-efficient cars: Buyers of new cars that got an "A" rating in the energy-efficiency classification scheme ranging from A (best) to G (worst) would receive cash payments of up to CHF 4000. Such incentives increase average energy-efficiency, and may reduce annual CO2 emissions at very low abatement costs. While such a policy alone is not sufficient to reach the Kyoto reduction goals, it seems necessary as first step to initiate the necessary changes in consumption behavior.
CV
Dr. Peter de Haan hat an der ETH Zürich Physik studiert, im Bereich Mikroklimatologie (Ausbreitung von Luftschadstoffen) doktoriert, und war 6 Jahre wissenschaftlichen Berater bei der INFRAS, bevor er 2003 wieder an die ETH Zürich zurückkehrte. Er ist Dozent zu Energie und Mobilität am Departement Umweltwissenschaften der ETH Zürich. Er leitet die Forschungsgruppe zu Energie-Effizienz und Konsumverhalten. Zwei der Schwerpunkte sind die Erforschung des Autokaufverhaltens und die Vorhersage der Auswirkungen von Anreizsystemen für energieeffiziente Neuwagen. Zu diesen Themen ist Peter de Haan auch in der Beratung der Bundesverwaltung und mehrerer Kantone sowie der Autoimporteure und der Erdölbranche tätig.
